![]() Further, as people age, they become more cautious: Japan had the lowest percentage of respondents who thought their pensions were sufficient, despite Japan having the largest pension assets in the A-10. However, the survey finds that due to insufficient pensions and public healthcare in most of the A-10 countries, households may continue to save for emergencies and retirement over the coming decade. Given that A-10 dependency ratios (the number of children and retired elders per 100 workers) are set to rise, many people fear a drop in their savings. The A-10 countries are also a major provider of capital to the world, with USD 15 trillion in net international assets. Labor-supply-related challenges could intensify after 2035. Risks to supply can come from geopolitical conflicts, which can hamper productivity growth. Despite a growing preference for services employment, as corroborated by the survey, the supply of industrial labor to global value chains from A-10 countries is less at risk than feared, at least over the coming decade. A continuing shift away from agriculture can help release workers for industry and services, but, most importantly, the quality of the workforce may matter more than its quantity. The A-10 countries made up more than half of incremental global working age population in 2010, but will see a shrinking workforce by 2032. They are aging faster too: whereas the average age in the EU/USA rose from 30 to 40 over half a century, this occurred in just 17 years in South Korea and 22–24 years in Japan, China and Thailand. Most of the A-10 countries have reached low fertility levels at much lower per capita income levels than in the EU/USA. ![]() The A-10 economies have grown two to three times faster than the pace at which the EU/USA grew at similar income levels, but the drop in their fertility levels has been five to seven times faster. In the ten years ending 2019, ten economies in Asia (A-10) China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan (Chinese Taipei), made up 50% of incremental global GDP and 60% of incremental goods exports, and supplied USD 5 trillion in capital to the rest of the world. ![]() The research team combined this survey with comprehensive secondary research to answer some of the key questions for the global economy due to Asia’s ageing population: the supply of labor, and the supply of capital. This survey uniquely explores the impact of demographics on supply-side factors like labor and savings, as well as social preferences that drive demographic and work choices. The CSRI conducted a proprietary survey of 6,000 people in the six most populous countries in Asia. A new report from the Credit Suisse Research Institute (CSRI) has highlighted the divergence between the pace of economic growth in Asian economies in comparison to their fall in fertility rates. ![]()
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